How Quantectum forecasts earthquakes?
In May 2012, two strong earthquakes hit Northern Italy. The first struck on the 20 May, having a magnitude of 6.1, while the second struck on the 29 May, achieving a magnitude of 5.8. Both earthquakes with their aftershocks have become known as the 2012 Emillia earthquakes. They caused 27 deaths and widespread damage.
Large and destructive earthquakes represent a threat to humanity since ancient times. If we are not prepared for these extreme events, they can cause a great loss of human lives and economic loss. For example, on 26 December 2004, a magnitude 9.2 earthquake near Sumatra, Indonesia, killed almost 250,000 people. On 12 January 2010, a magnitude 7 earthquake near Haiti killed almost 316,000 people. The costliest earthquake was a magnitude 9.1 Tohoku earthquake on 11 March 2011, which caused almost 234 billion dollars of economic loss. These facts make reliable earthquake forecasting and prediction a primary research objective.
The question that seismologists try to solve for more than 100 years, is the following: “Are earthquakes predictable?”
According to the old view, the earthquake sequences are assumed to be random. For example, before the 2012 Emilia earthquakes, numerous moderate earthquakes happened in the region of Northern Italy that seemed random both in time and space. Also in a global scale, earthquake occurrence is virtually chaotic, with no order.
But is this really so?
After the publication of the Omega-Theory in 2018, we now know that tectonic faults in the Earth’s crust interact. The Omega-Theory is based on observations by structural geologists, which discovered that faults form groups that tend to be parallel to each other. Tectonic faults interact to form sequences of events, the so-called Omega-sequences. Earthquake series along the parallel faults are never random but are either periodic or geometric. The process is similar to falling dominoes and forms some kind of a wave that we call the tectonic wave.
Quantectum Forecasting System
To forecast earthquakes based on the Omega-Theory, Quantectum uses a highly sophisticated and complex forecasting system, which is composed of several modules; (1) Data assimilation module, (2) Stress forecasting module, (3) Time-synchronization forecasting module, (4) Ensemble earthquake forecasting module, (5) Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis module, and (6) On-line informational service module.
The Quantectum system allows for immediate, short-range, medium-range and long-range forecasts and predictions.
(1) Data assimilation module
… performs the pre-processing data analysis of the existing seismic catalogs, and downloads the publically available data on the past earthquakes worldwide, where the following information is needed for each earthquake: time, hypocenter, magnitude, and orientation of fault plane. The module then imports the data into the main storage unit, where the data can be used for further analysis.
(2) Stress forecasting module
… calculates numerous models of the global tectonic stress fields. Earth’s crust is composed of several large tectonic plates. Slow movements of these tectonic plates… cause variations of the tectonic shear-stress… in different tectonic zones worldwide. Our research shows that large earthquakes generally occur in regions of enlarged tectonic shear-stress. Knowing the locations of the high shear-stress regions… offers the first clues where large and destructive earthquakes can be expected.
(3) Time-synchronization forecasting module
This module gives our users direct insight into the local seismic states within local tectonic zones. According to the Omega-Theory the earthquake sequences are not random. For example, the seismic sequence before the 2012 Emilia earthquake was composed of a multiplicity of geometric and periodic Omega-sequences. We can use advanced computer algorithms to extract these sequences out from seismic catalogs and extrapolate them into the future.
For each Omega-sequence, the Time-synchronization forecasting module calculates the next future possible event. It was discovered that the Omega-sequences synchronize their rhythm, and sometimes produce a hypothetical future event at the same time. The Omega-sequences become time-synchronized. Real earthquakes tend to occur during such time-synchronizations. For example, the 2012 Emilia earthquakes… and also most of their later aftershocks… happened during the time-synchronizations defined by earthquakes that happened years before. Calculating the time-synchronizations… is essential for knowing in which state some tectonic zone currently is. In a stable or an unstable…
(4) Ensemble earthquake forecasting module
The time-synchronizations cause that local tectonic zones become unstable. However, these instabilities do not directly trigger earthquakes.
The real triggers of earthquakes in the Earth’s crust are the tectonic waves. Based on the Omega-Theory, we know that thousands and thousands of such tectonic waves travel through the Earth’s crust triggering earthquakes in unstable tectonic zones. Tectonic waves are where earthquakes are. These are solitary waves having all possible velocities ranging between 0 and approximately 6000 m/s. Based on a careful analysis of the distribution of past earthquakes on Earth we can calculate the current and the future positions of tectonic waves. When these waves pass through the unstable fault systems and the plate-tectonic boundaries, they can cause strong earthquakes. Therefore, tectonic waves define endangered regions where dangerous seismic states can occur.
The Ensemble earthquake forecasting module then illustrates the seismic states produced by tectonic waves on charts as clouds, which is a very similar approach to that used in meteorology. These are so-called synchronization clouds that are constantly appearing and disappearing worldwide directly triggering earthquakes across the tectonic plate boundaries.
For the first time, we can observe that the virtually chaotic occurrence of earthquakes is underlined by oscillations of the synchronization field produced by tectonic waves.
(5) Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis module
… uses results produced by the Stress forecasting module, the Time-synchronization forecasting module, and the Ensemble earthquake forecasting module, and performs statistical tests of the results, evaluates the successes and failures of the forecasts and predictions. The module produces the final technical products of the system, which, above all, comprise various charts of forecasts and predictions, and various statistical data. The module also performs probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the user-defined locations, regions, or in the global sense. The final step is the risk estimation and possible warning issues.
(6) On-line informational service module
… compiles the results, technical products, and articles of the Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis module, and delivers all information to the users of the system. It automatically creates reports for all earthquakes worldwide having a magnitude above 4.5. It also automatically generates reports, forecasts, and predictions for all regions and Points of Interest defined by the users of the system. This information is then available on-line.
In the last century, seismologists developed and discussed a vast number of concepts and theories to evaluate the physics of earthquakes and their predictability. All these studies brought mixed and unconvincing results; therefore a pessimistic view proposed by Geller and coauthors in 1997 that earthquakes are unpredictable, threw a dark shadow on the problem of earthquake prediction.
Luckily, this pessimistic view is wrong!
The mechanism of the seismic chaos synchronizations with its further theoretical development within the Omega-Theory represents an all-new theory of the fundamental underlying physics of earthquakes. The Omega-Theory, and the Quantectum forecasting system are now considered as a solution to the earthquake prediction problem… and offer a unique opportunity for humanity.