Quantectum's Technical Report on Petrinja Earthquake (2020)

Picture 1: Location of Petrinja earthquake.

The Petrinja M6.4 earthquake on December 29, 2020, was an unusual event, accompanied by relatively low shear stress and shear traction fields. Therefore, no medium-term forecasts for this event were possible based on the analysis of shear traction fields produced by tectonic waves. The increased probability of a possible strong earthquake near Petrinja was only evident based on the long-term forecasts of T-synchronizations, which defined the fourth-order T-synchronization between September 2020 and September 2021. Finally, the M6.4 earthquake near Petrinja on December 29, 2020, was a consequence of a passage of highly active tectonic waves through the region of Northern Balkan, which significantly increased the earthquake-triggering probability two days before the event.

Future forecasts for the Petrinja region suggest continuous high instability of the region till September 2021 characterized by the fourth-order T-synchronization. The subsequent significant fourth-order T-synchronizations and high local interaction potentials will be around 2025 (plus/minus one year), 2027 (plus/minus one year), and toward 2030. The exact dates and probabilities of the possible future earthquakes will be defined by the passage of the tectonic waves, and can only be forecasted by the Quantectum Ensemble Forecasting System a few months ahead.

Results of the Quantectum analysis show that continuous real-time monitoring of the T-synchronizations along the Petrinja fault is needed. Similar monitoring should also be performed along other faults, for example, along Silovec, Kalnik, Jastrebarsko, Bistra, Podsljeme, Kutina, and Bosiljevo faults. Together with the analysis of the forecasted shear traction fields, this allows for calculating the actual probabilities of future events along these faults.

The full technical report on this event can be found on the following link: Petrinja earthquake (2020); Quantectum technical report