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Quantectum is shaking the ground of earthquake prediction and forecast

It has long been believed, that earthquakes are impossible to forecast or predict. However, in 1975 it seemed the light at the end of the tunnel appeared when we witnessed the first correctly and timely predicted earthquake. The earthquake occurred in Haicheng city, in China and its prediction was based mainly on the pronounced foreshock sequence (earthquakes that precede larger earthquakes in the same location). Besides this precursor, other anomalies were also detected, such as geodetic deformation, changes in groundwater level, color and chemistry, and animal behavior. Due to these detected anomalies, officials gave the evacuation orders a few hours before the destructive earthquake of magnitude 7.3 hit the city, which made many people leave their homes and consequently save their own lives.

   Haicheng_earthquake_China
Picture 1: Devastating consequences of Haicheng earthquake. Source: Zhihuwang.

It seemed as if the world of seismology found the solution to the earthquake prediction problem. However, soon after the Haicheng earthquake occurred, many other earthquakes hit as well, without seismologists and other scientists being able to predict them. It was soon clear that these methods of predicting earthquakes were not as reliable as it was primarily thought. Since then, no one discovered any new method that could bring us closer to timely and reliable earthquake prediction.

That is to say, until Quantectum developed a complex system for forecasting earthquakes, which is based on the Omega-Theory and takes into account various different modules, instead of just one, making the forecast more reliable and scientifically based. By generating a range of possible outcomes, the method of ensemble forecasting, used by Quantectum, can show how likely different scenarios are in the following days, and how long into the future the forecasts are useful.


Picture 2: M8.2 Alaska Peninsula earthquake Regional shear-traction field at the time of the earthquake.
Picture was produced by Quantectum Earthquake Forecasting System.

Predicting earthquakes or forecasting earthquakes?

Are earthquake prediction and forecasting the same side of the coin? No! It is important to understand what differentiates them and what information is necessary to be able to predict or forecast earthquakes. Welcome to read the blog about their characteristics and differences here

How is Omega-Theory important?

The system of ensemble earthquake forecasting used by Quantectum is based on the Omega-Theory, which is an all-new theory of the fundamental underlying physics of earthquakes and faulting processes in the Earth’s crust, which lead to the solution of earthquake forecasting. The theory was heavily tested on numerous natural examples and numerical tests. It spans over many fields of seismology, theoretical physics, and geology, such as plate tectonics, synchronization of chaotic systems, quantum mechanics, etc.

After the publication of the Omega-Theory in 2018, a group of physicists and geologists initiated the Quantectum project. This project is dedicated to testing the Omega-Theory, its capabilities, and its limits, and to advancing global earthquake ensemble forecasting.

More information about the Omega-Theory is available here.

What makes Quantectum different?

Quantectum is the world’s leading figure in earthquake forecasting. The forecast system that was developed under its roof is based on scientific evidence and was tested for a long period of time. After years of testing the forecasting system and with the use of a highly sophisticated and complex forecasting system of different modules, we’ve been able to forecast numerous earthquakes all around the world. 

The Quantectum’s forecasts are not general, but rather specific. Many earthquake predictions are based on general information (for example “an earthquake of magnitude around 6.0 is going to occur in the USA in the next 30 days”) that gives a wide space for its actual occurrence. However, Quantectum’s earthquake forecast defines all three elements required for earthquake forecasting in detail
 1) the date and time, 
 2) the location, and 
 3) the magnitude.

Earthquake forecast’s goal is the specification of the above three elements of future earthquakes with sufficient precision that a warning can be issued. All of them have to be stated more or less correctly in order to say, that an earthquake was forecasted successfully. If one forecasted element differs from the actual event, the earthquake forecast or prediction is considered incorrect.


Picture 3: Quantectum attended the American Geophysical Union conference 2021.

 

Many earthquake predictions or forecasts are made on social media when some individuals detect something they think is (or could be) a precursor to an earthquake in the near future in a certain area. These include increasing amounts of radon in water, unusual behavior of animals, increasing size of magnitudes in moderate size events, a swarm of small earthquakes, or a weak-magnitude earthquake event that they think could be a foreshock.

These earthquake precursors are all well-known to the world of seismology, but still, no one, except Quantectum, was able to join them in the earthquake forecasting system that in addition to other scientifically proven models, could actually timely forecast earthquakes. Moreover, several earthquakes have no precursory events whatsoever, the same as the next big earthquake in China after the Haicheng earthquake had no precursors and it was so devastating, that thousands of people died.

In addition, it is important to notice, that many such precursors occur on a daily basis all around the world without being followed by an earthquake. On the other side, if there is a scientific basis, as it is in the case of Quantectum, a forecast might be made in probabilistic terms. 

Seismology world also deals with earthquake early warning (EEW) systems, that use earthquake science and the technology of monitoring systems to alert people when shaking waves generated by an earthquake, that already occurred, are expected to arrive at their area. The warning comes seconds to tens of seconds in advance, leaving people enough time to take action to protect their lives.

At Quantectum, however, we forecast earthquakes up to 64 days in advance, letting the governments, businesses, and society have enough time to decide on the most appropriate measures.

Earthquake_forecasting_Quantectum
Picture 4: Time development of the shear traction field in California for a certain time when anomalies were observed.
It was taken from Quantectum Earthquake Forecasting System.

Is there any proof that Quantectum can forecast earthquakes?

Yes. At Quantectum, earthquake forecasting is done in the operational center. Operational center is a center with various seismologists and experts in the seismology field, who are always on the look for the next possible major earthquake. They monitor the current events in Earth’s crust, compare it to the information from previous major events, and produce earthquake forecasting results. Based on various parameters they prepare weekly and monthly forecasts and reports based on recent earthquakes.

In the testing period, they correctly forecasted various earthquakes that occurred all around the world. You can see specific forecasted earthquakes here.

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