Successful Earthquake Forecasts (08/01/24-12/01/24) by Quantectum

On Monday, January 8, 2024, Quantectum released its weekly earthquake forecasts covering the Euro-Mediterranean, Indonesia, Japan, and Mexico. Throughout the week from January 8 to January 12, we have so far accurately anticipated three seismic events:

  • M6.7 earthquake in Indonesia (09/01/24),
  • Sumatra moderate events: M5.1 earthquake near Teluk Dalam, M5.2 quake near Tuapejat, and M5.3 event near Pelabuhanratu (08/01/24 and 09/01/24),
  • M6.4 earthquake in Afghanistan (11/01/24).

In this post, we’ll explore basic information on earthquakes mentioned above and see our earthquake forecasts for these seismic events.

M6.7 earthquake in Indonesia (January 09, 2024)

A magnitude 6.7 earthquake struck the Kepulauan Talaud in Indonesia on January 8, 2024, at 04:48:42 local time reaching a depth of 68 km (42 mi). Prior to this seismic event, Quantectum underscored the high seismic hazard exposure (orange alert) in this specific region in our weekly forecast (08/01/2024-14/01/2024) for Indonesia, which is available here. As depicted in the link image, this observation served as a proactive measure to communicate the potential seismic risk to the affected area.

Quantectum's comprehensive Macroseismic Intensity map valuable insights into the seismic impact of the earthquake. For this earthquake, the map suggested a maximum intensity "VI" around the epicenter. This intensity level corresponds to strong shaking and indicates the likelihood of slight damage near the earthquake’s epicenter. The details captured by this intensity map play a crucial role in understanding the potential effects on structures and communities in the affected areas. In light of this seismic event, Quantectum identified several cities with the potential for heightened exposure to the earthquake's impact. The most potentially exposed among these were Caburan with a population of 13,000, Glan with 24,000 residents, Sapu Padidu accommodating 10,000 inhabitants, Malapatan with a population of 19,000, Lun Pequeno sustaining 12,000 residents, Alabel boasting a population of 43,000, and Buayan with 15,000 inhabitants.

Macroseismic Intensity map for M6.7 earthquake in Indonesia (January 9, 2024).

Picture 1: Macroseismic Intensity map for magnitude 6.7 earthquake in Indonesia (January 9, 2024). Source: Quantectum Indonesia.

Sumatra Moderate Seismic Events (January 2024)

In the previously mentioned week, Quantectum accurately forecasted the following moderate seismic events in Sumatra:

  • M5.1 earthquake near Teluk Dalam (09/01/24),
  • M5.2 quake near Tuapejat (08/01/24), and
  • M5.3 event near Pelabuhanratu (03/01/24).

Quantectum released an extensive report on November 30, 2023, which focuses on the impact of tectonic waves on particular areas, specifically focusing on Sumatra, the Himalayas, and Chile. The analysis emphasized the anticipated escalation of shear traction and heightened probabilities of earthquake occurrence within the time window spanning from the second half of December 2023 to the beginning of January 2024. These tectonic waves triggered moderate earthquakes mentioned above. The post from November 30, 2023, which is available here, said:

"Earthquake-triggering in Indonesia
From second half of December 2'23 2023 to the beginning of January 2024, a set of tectonic wages will affect regions of Sumatra (Indonesia), Himalayas, & Chile (S America), increasing shear traction and earthquake-triggering probability."

In addition to the previously mentioned models, Quantectum utilized an additional advanced model to further enhance the understanding of seismic hazards. This specific model utilized dynamic algorithms and a meticulously crafted smoothed seismicity model. The outcome revealed a principally moderate hazard exposure (blue alert) in the Sumatra region, as visually depicted in the image below.

Moderate seismic hazard exposure in Indonesia.
Picture 2: Moderate seismic hazard exposure in Indonesia. Source: Quantectum Indonesia.

M6.4 Earthquake in Afghanistan (January 11, 2024)

A magnitude 6.4 earthquake hit the Hindu Kush region, Afghanistan, on January 11, 2024, at precisely 13:50 local time. The seismic event unfolded at a depth of 206 km (130 mi) sending shockwaves through the affected areas. The epicenter was located 45 km (27.9 mi) south of Jurm, a town with a population of approximately 12,100, and 162 km (100.6 mi) east of Kunduz, a more densely populated area boasting a populace of around 161,000.

Remarkably, the area affected by the earthquake was highlighted in our forecast based on the analysis of D-waves on January 10, 2024, and is visually depicted here

"Together with other waves, the three D-waves cause the greatest active traction (Quantectum's MEAN model) in several regions:
- Kamchatka & Aleutian Islands
- Central America,
- Central part of Southern America,
- Greece & Western Turkey
- Central Afghanistan & Hindu Kush region
- Kuril Islands & Japan
- Southern Philippines & parts of Indonesia
- Tonga, Kermadec & New Zealand

We will carefully monitor the situation."

We have been closely monitoring the seismic activity of three potentially dangerous D-waves spreading their influence across various regions worldwide. These D-waves have prior contributed to the triggering of multiple earthquakes around the world:
- Wave 1: M4.4 in Georgia, M4.4 in Iceland, M5.6 in Carlsberg Ridge, M5.1 in southern East Pacific Rise, M4.6 in northern East Pacific Rise.
- Wave 2: M5.5 & M5.6 in Balleny Islands region, M5.7, M4.7 & M5.3 in Tonga, M4.3 & M5.1 in Kermadec Islands region.
- Wave 3: M4.3 in Tonga, M6.8 in Kepulauan Talaud, M4.2 in Mindanao, Philippines.

Three global D-waves that triggered multiple earthquakes worldwide.
Picture 3: Three global D-waves that triggered multiple earthquakes worldwide. Source: Quantectum Global Earthquake Forecasting Center.

Additionally, high (orange alert) seismic hazard exposure has been implemented around the earthquake's epicenter. This is attributed to heightened local instabilities and tectonic traction across the vast region.

High seismic hazard exposure for the Afghanistan region.
Picture 4: High seismic hazard exposure for the Afghanistan region. Source: Quantectum Global Earthquake Forecasting Center.

Conclusion

At Quantectum, we prepare weekly earthquake forecasts each week, highlighting the most seismically exposed regions. In the second week of January 2024, we successfully forecasted a few major seismic events, which shows that our earthquake forecasting models are reliable. To get more information on the latest earthquakes and updates on future seismicity globally, follow us and stay updated.

Follow us on:
- X Global,
- X Indonesia,
- X Japan,
- X Euro-Mediterranean,
- X Mexico,
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