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Dynamic seismic potential

The dynamic seismic potential (Ps_dyn) is defined as Ps_dyn(r,t) = Ps(r) + 0.5 dN(r,t), where Ps is the average seismic potential, and dN(r,t) is the change of the average rate of earthquakes in some region in the last 3 months. The dynamic seismic potential is calculated based on the modified Pattern Informatics (PI) approach (e.g., Holliday et al., 2005, 2006, 2007; Nanjo et al., 2006; Wu et al., 2012; Kawamura et al., 2013; Wu et al., 2014). Dynamic seismic potential quantifies anomalous changes in seismicity. We define strong anomalies as the so-called hot spots. Hot spots are regions with an increase in seismic activity relative to the long-term average. Hot spots can be successfully used to forecast hypocenters of future earthquakes within the framework of the middle-range time scales (up to 1 month ahead).

The dynamic seismic potential can be calculated with a resolution of 1 or 0.1 degrees. The range of the normalized values of the dynamic seismic potential is between 0 and 1.

 

References:

  • Holliday, J.R., Chen, C.-C., Tiampo, K.F., Rundle, J.B., Turcotte, D.L., Donnellan, A., 2007. A RELM Earthquake Forecast Based on Pattern Informatics. Seismological Research Letters. 78/1, 87-93.
  • Holliday, J.R., Nanjo, K.Z., Tiampo, K.F., Rundle, J.B., Turcotte, D.L., 2005. Earthquake forecasting and its verification. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics. 12, 965–977.
  • Holliday, J.R., Rundle, J.B., Tiampo, K.F., Klein, W., Donnellan, A., 2006. Systematic Procedural and Sensitivity Analysis of the Pattern Informatics Method for Forecasting Large (M > 5) Earthquake Events in Southern California. Pure and Applied Geophysics. 163, 2433-2454.
  • Kawamura, M., Wu, Y.-H., Kudo, T., Chen, C.-C., 2013. Precursory Migration of Anomalous Seismic Activity Revealed by the Pattern Informatics Method: A Case Study of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake, Japan. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. 103/2B, 1171-1180.
  • Nanjo, K.Z., Rundle, J.B., Holliday, J.R., Turcotte, D.L., 2006. Pattern Informatics and its Application for Optimal Forecasting of Large Earthquakes in Japan. Pure and Applied Geophysics. 163, 2417-2432.
  • Wu, Y.-H., Chen, C.-C., Rundle, J.B., Wang, J.-H., 2012. Regional Dependence of Seismic Migration Patterns. Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. 23/2, 161 – 170.
  • Wu, Y.-H., Rundle, J.B., Chen, C.-C., 2014. Critical parameter estimates for earthquake forecast using PI migration. Natural Hazards. 76, 1357 – 1371.