M6.0 Crete, Greece

Forecasted: 2021-08-27

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-09-27

Depth of earthquake: 10.00 km

*Model was calculated at the date of forecasting

Figure 1: M6.0 Crete, Greece; Regional shear-traction field at the time of the earthquake.

Figure 2: M6.0 Crete (Greece) earthquake – shear-traction field at the near-, intermediate- and far- field distances from the earthquake.


The M6.0 earthquake in Crete was triggered by a strong, long-lasting increase of the shear-traction field in the Aegean Sea. This regional increase later triggered additional M6.0 and M6.5 earthquakes in the eastern part of Crete, Greece, and SE of Crete. The elevated shear-traction field was caused by many strong tectonic waves passing through the region.

On 27th August 2021, we forecasted the elevated possibility for earthquakes in the region of Crete in Greece for the time period from 24th September 2021 to 30th September 2021. The strongest one happened on 27th September.


Long term increase of region shear-traction field led to triggering of 3 M6+ earthquakes in the Aegean Sea. All of them happened during the near-, intermediate- and far-field increase of the shear-traction.

The estimated seismicity rate for the region around the three M6+ earthquakes was elevated during the time period of the shown model. The expected number of M5.5+ earthquakes was almost 20-times larger than the long-term seismicity rate. The probability for M5.5+ earthquake triggering was 27.37%. All three earthquakes happened during the two peaks of the probability.

Earthquakes that we forecasted


Forecasted on: 2021-08-27 

Forecasted for the time: 2021-09-24 to 2021-09-30

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-09-27

Model generated on August 27th, 2021

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Forecasted on: 2021-07-15 

Forecasted for the time: 2021-08-10 to 2021-08-16

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-08-12

Model generated on July 15th, 2021

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Forecasted on: 2021-06-29

Forecasted for the time: 2021-07-25 to 2021-07-31

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-07-29

Model generated on June 29th, 2021

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Forecasted on: 2021-04-01

Forecasted for the time: 2021-04-28 to 2021-05-04

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-05-01

Model generated on April 1st, 2021

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