M6.2 Taiwan

Forecasted*: 2021-08-08

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-10-24

Depth of earthquake: 67.00 km

*Model was calculated at the date of forecasting

Figure 1: M6.2 Taiwan; Regional shear-traction field at the time of the earthquake.

Figure 2: M6.2 Taiwan earthquake – shear-traction field at the near-, intermediate- and far- field distances from the earthquake.

The M6.2 earthquake in Taiwan happened due to the increase of the local shear-traction field. On 8th August 2021, we forecasted the elevated possibility for earthquakes in the region of Taiwan for the time period from 23rd October 2021 to 29th October 2021. The strongest one happened on 24th October and was followed by weaker ones.

As shown on the Figure 2, M6.2 earthquake happened during the increase of all, near-, intermediate- and far-field shear-traction changes.

The probability for M5.5+ on the island of Taiwan was 57.92% for the time of the selected model. The earthquake happened during a big increase of the estimated seismicity rate in the region