M6.5 Near N. Coast of New Guinea, PNG.

Forecasted: 2021-01-07

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-02-07

Depth of earthquake: 10.00 km

*Model was calculated at the date of forecasting

Figure 1: M6.5 Papua New Guinea; Regional shear-traction field at the time of the earthquake.

Figure 2: M6.5 Near N. Coast of New Guinea (PNG) earthquake – shear-traction field at the near-, intermediate- and far- field distances from the earthquake.

The M6.5 Papua New Guinea earthquake was triggered by the increase shear-traction field generated by tectonic waves traveling over the region.

On January 7th, we forecasted the elevated possibility for earthquakes in the region of the Northern Coast of New Guinea for the time period from 4th February 2021 to 10th February 2021. The strongest one happened on February 7th and was followed by several more in the following days.

As shown on the Figure 2, the tectonic waves increased the effect of near- and intermediate- shear-traction field which triggered the mainshock.

Earthquakes that we forecasted


Forecasted on: 2021-08-27 

Forecasted for the time: 2021-09-24 to 2021-09-30

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-09-27

Model generated on August 27th, 2021

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Forecasted on: 2021-07-15 

Forecasted for the time: 2021-08-10 to 2021-08-16

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-08-12

Model generated on July 15th, 2021

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Forecasted on: 2021-06-29

Forecasted for the time: 2021-07-25 to 2021-07-31

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-07-29

Model generated on June 29th, 2021

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Forecasted on: 2021-04-01

Forecasted for the time: 2021-04-28 to 2021-05-04

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-05-01

Model generated on April 1st, 2021

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