M6.8 Near East Coast of Honshu, Japan

Forecasted: 2021-04-01

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-05-01

Depth of earthquake: 60.00 km

*Model was calculated at the date of forecasting

Figure 1: M6.8 Near East Coast of Honshu, Japan; Regional shear-traction field at the time of the earthquake.

Figure 2:  M6.8 Near East Coast of Honshu (Japan) earthquake – shear-traction field at the near-, intermediate- and far- field distances from the earthquake.


The M6.8 earthquake in Near Coast of Honshu in Japan was triggered by an increase in local and regional shear-traction. The shear-traction changes were generated by the presence of multiple tectonic waves passing over Japan and neighboring regions.

On April 1st, we forecasted the elevated possibility for earthquakes in the region of the Near East Coast of Honshu in Japan for the time period from 28th April 2021 to 4th May 2021. The strongest one happened on May 1st and was followed by several more in the following days.

The mainshock happened during the increased near- and increase in intermediate- and far-field effect of the shear-traction.

Probability for earthquake triggering of the forecast model used shows that the M6.8 earthquake happened during the time of increase of estimated seismicity rate for the region. The overall probability for triggering M6.5+ during the time-length of the model was 14.36%.

Earthquakes that we forecasted


Forecasted on: 2021-08-27 

Forecasted for the time: 2021-09-24 to 2021-09-30

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-09-27

Model generated on August 27th, 2021

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Forecasted on: 2021-07-15 

Forecasted for the time: 2021-08-10 to 2021-08-16

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-08-12

Model generated on July 15th, 2021

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Forecasted on: 2021-06-29

Forecasted for the time: 2021-07-25 to 2021-07-31

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-07-29

Model generated on June 29th, 2021

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Forecasted on: 2021-04-01

Forecasted for the time: 2021-04-28 to 2021-05-04

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-05-01

Model generated on April 1st, 2021

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