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M7.0 Near East Coast of Honshu, Japan

Forecasted: 2021-02-15

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-03-20

Depth of earthquake: 40.00 km

*Model was calculated at the date of forecasting

Figure 1: M7.0 Near East Coast of Honshu in Japan; Regional shear-traction field at the time of the earthquake.

Figure 2: M7.0 Near East Coast of Honshu (Japan) earthquake – shear-traction field at the near-, intermediate- and far- field distances from the earthquake.

The M7.0 earthquake in Near East Coast of Honshu was triggered by a strong increase in the local and regional shear-traction field. The increase of the shear-traction field was generated by the presence of multiple tectonic waves in the area.

On February 15th, we forecasted the elevated possibility for earthquakes in the region of the Near East Coast of Honshu in Japan for the time period from 17th March 2021 to 23rd March 2021. The strongest one happened on March 20th and was followed by several more in the following days.

As seen on the time-dependent development of the shear-traction field, the mainshock happened during the strong increase of the shear-traction caused by the increase of near-, intermediate- and far-field effect. Another M5.6 earthquake happened later during the increase in the shear-traction field.

Earthquakes that we forecasted

6.0

Forecasted on: 2021-08-27 

Forecasted for the time: 2021-09-24 to 2021-09-30

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-09-27

Model generated on August 27th, 2021

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8.1

Forecasted on: 2021-07-15 

Forecasted for the time: 2021-08-10 to 2021-08-16

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-08-12

Model generated on July 15th, 2021

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8.2

Forecasted on: 2021-06-29

Forecasted for the time: 2021-07-25 to 2021-07-31

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-07-29

Model generated on June 29th, 2021

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6.8

Forecasted on: 2021-04-01

Forecasted for the time: 2021-04-28 to 2021-05-04

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-05-01

Model generated on April 1st, 2021

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