M7.1 Near East Coast of Honshu, Japan

Forecasted: 2021-01-15

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-02-13

Depth of earthquake: 60.00 km

*Model was calculated at the date of forecasting

Figure 1: M7.1 Near East Coast of Honshu, Japan; Regional shear-traction field at the time of the earthquake.

Figure 2: M7.1 Near East Coast of Honshu (Japan) earthquake – shear-traction field at the near-, intermediate- and far- field distances from the earthquake.

M7.1 earthquake in Near East Coast of Honshu in Japan was triggered by the local increase of the shear-traction field as shown in Figure 1. The increase of shear-traction happened during the passage of strong tectonic waves.

On January 15th, we forecasted the elevated possibility for earthquakes in the region of the Near East Coast of Honshu in Japan for the time period from 11th February 2021 to 17th February 2021. The strongest one happened on February 13th and was followed by several more in the following days.

The Figure 2 shows the changes of time-dependent shear-traction field. The earthquake was triggered by the strong near-, intermediate- and far-field effect of the shear-traction. As visible in Figure 2, another similarly sized earthquake happened approximately one month later, during the increased intermediate- and far-field changes.

Earthquakes that we forecasted


Forecasted on: 2021-08-27 

Forecasted for the time: 2021-09-24 to 2021-09-30

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-09-27

Model generated on August 27th, 2021

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Forecasted on: 2021-07-15 

Forecasted for the time: 2021-08-10 to 2021-08-16

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-08-12

Model generated on July 15th, 2021

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Forecasted on: 2021-06-29

Forecasted for the time: 2021-07-25 to 2021-07-31

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-07-29

Model generated on June 29th, 2021

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Forecasted on: 2021-04-01

Forecasted for the time: 2021-04-28 to 2021-05-04

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-05-01

Model generated on April 1st, 2021

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