M7.7 Southeast of Loyalty Islands

Forecasted: 2021-01-15

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-02-10

Depth of earthquake: 10.00 km

*Model was calculated at the date of forecasting

Figure 1: M7.7 Southeast of the Loyalty Islands; Regional shear-traction field at the time of the earthquake.

Figure 2: M7.7 Southeast of Loyalty Islands earthquake – shear-traction field at the near-, intermediate- and far- field distances from the earthquake.

The M7.7 earthquake southeast of Loyalty Islands was triggered by the strong local and regional increase of shear-traction field, generated by strong tectonic waves traveling over the region.

On 15th January 2021, we forecasted the elevated possibility for earthquakes in the region of Southeast of the Loyalty Islands for the time period from 8th February 2021 to 14th February 2021. The strongest one happened on 10th February and was followed by weaker ones in the following days.

The time-dependent evolution of shear-traction field clearly shows the relationship between the increased near- and intermediate- shear-traction field and triggering of the mainshock.