M8.1 Kermadec Islands, New Zealand

Forecasted: 2021-02-04

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-03-04

Depth of earthquake: 25.00 km

*Model was calculated at the date of forecasting

Figure 1: M8.1 Kermadec Islands, New Zealand; Regional shear-traction field at the time of the earthquake.

Figure 2: M8.1 Kermadec Islands (NZ) earthquake – shear-traction field at the near-, intermediate- and far- field distances from the earthquake.

The M8.1 earthquake in Kermadec Islands was triggered by a graduate but strong increase of the shear-traction field in the region. The shear-traction field was elevated by many passing tectonic waves.

On February 4th we forecasted the elevated possibility for earthquakes in the region of the Kermadec Islands, New Zealand, for the time period from 2nd March 2021 to 8th March 2021. The strongest one happened on March 4th and was followed by several more in the following days.

Over the time of the presented model, the changes of near- and intermediate shear-traction fields are graduate but large. The earthquake happened during the maximum of the time-dependent change in the shear-traction field.

Earthquakes that we forecasted


Forecasted on: 2021-08-27 

Forecasted for the time: 2021-09-24 to 2021-09-30

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-09-27

Model generated on August 27th, 2021

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Forecasted on: 2021-07-15 

Forecasted for the time: 2021-08-10 to 2021-08-16

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-08-12

Model generated on July 15th, 2021

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Forecasted on: 2021-06-29

Forecasted for the time: 2021-07-25 to 2021-07-31

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-07-29

Model generated on June 29th, 2021

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Forecasted on: 2021-04-01

Forecasted for the time: 2021-04-28 to 2021-05-04

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-05-01

Model generated on April 1st, 2021

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