M8.1 South Sandwich Islands Region

Forecasted: 2021-07-15

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-08-12

Depth of earthquake: 60.00 km

*Model was calculated at the date of forecasting

Figure 1: M8.1 South Sandwich Islands Region; Regional shear-traction field at the time of the earthquake.

Figure 2: M8.1 South Sandwich Islands Region earthquake – shear-traction field at the near-, intermediate- and far- field distances from the earthquake.


The M8.1 South Sandwich Islands earthquake happened during the increase of both local and regional shear-traction fields. The field increased during the passage of several strong tectonic waves over the region.

On 15th July 2021, we forecasted the elevated possibility for earthquakes in the region of Southeast of the South Sandwich Islands for the time period from 10th August 2021 to 16th August 2021. The strongest one happened on 12th August and was followed by several more in the following days.

The time-dependent changes of the shear-traction show, how the earthquake was triggered by the effect of near-, intermediate- and far-field effects of shear-traction.

The probability for M7.5+ during the model used for the forecasting of M8.1 earthquake was 0.96%. The earthquake happened during the increase of the estimated seismicity rate in the region.

Earthquakes that we forecasted


Forecasted on: 2021-08-27 

Forecasted for the time: 2021-09-24 to 2021-09-30

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-09-27

Model generated on August 27th, 2021

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Forecasted on: 2021-07-15 

Forecasted for the time: 2021-08-10 to 2021-08-16

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-08-12

Model generated on July 15th, 2021

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Forecasted on: 2021-06-29

Forecasted for the time: 2021-07-25 to 2021-07-31

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-07-29

Model generated on June 29th, 2021

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Forecasted on: 2021-04-01

Forecasted for the time: 2021-04-28 to 2021-05-04

Earthquake occurrence date: 2021-05-01

Model generated on April 1st, 2021

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