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We operate the two sole global and real-time statistical and physical earthquake forecasting platforms on the market.

We understand earthquakes.

Quantectum combines statistical and physical earthquake forecasting for the best results on the market.
  • Statistical and physical earthquake forecasting models have both their own strengths and weaknesses. Quantectum overlays its statistical model RichterX and its physical model Omega to strike the best balance for an improved forecasting capability.
  • For instance, we are using RichterX to forecast the so-called triggered events, that are triggered by the occurrence of background events releasing high levels of energy and causing other faults to fail. Moreover, we rely on the Omega Engine to forecast the so-called background events occurring only due to pre-existing stresses on faults due to tectonic movements.

We offer different services to answer different questions.

Omega Services
What is current seismicity in Java region and what's the probability for a larger event in the next 3 weeks?
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Is 2023 going to be a year of increased seismological activity compared to the last 5 years? If yes, with what confidence and in which regions?
RichterX Services
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What is the probability of an M7+ event in San Francisco in the next 12 months?
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How does the probability of further devastating earthquakes change after an initial event in Turkey?
How many M5+ events and how many M6+ events are we likely to have in New Zelaland in the next 6 months?
Ground Motion Modelling Services
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Do M6.0 earthquakes last longer than M5.0 earthquakes? And by how much?
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How much do improved architectural and engineering standards impact earthquake damage and casualties?
If 50 people are reported dead within one hour of a M7.0 earthquake, how many earthquake victims might we expect in total?
Statistical and Physical Earthquake Forecasting Modules
An introduction to statistical forecasting.
  • Statistical models are commonly used. They extrapolate historical data to forecast future seismological activity through statistical simulations and translate the physical equations into statistics.
  • Forecasting quality for time, location, and magnitude of triggered events, for example aftershocks, is higher than physical models on all time scales. Still, it has a lower probability for forecasting background events / mainshocks in the short term.
  • Examples of statistical models include Smoothed Seismicity, Relative Intensity, Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model (ETAS), Pattern Informatics, etc.
  • The class of ETAS models used by RichterX gives better forecasts than other existing models.
Take Me to RichterX
Statistical and Physical Earthquake Forecasting Modules
An introduction to physical forecasting.
  • Physical models are scarce on the market due to their high sophistication level. They solve the physical equations governing the system of Earth. Also, they can provide valuable insights into the correlation between the physical forces in the Earth‘s crust and the observed earthquakes. They tend to be very sensitive to the data set used to initialize the model resulting in temporal and special errors.
  • Forecasting quality of triggered events is inferior to statistical models but has higher statistical relevance for background events / mainshocks in some cases in the short term.
  • Similar to weather forecasts in meteorology – but less accurate. Forecasting quality improves with the time window to event shortening.
Omega Platform
Statistical and Physical Earthquake Forecasting Quantectum RichterX