Physical earthquake forecasting at its best.
Our R/D department is always exploring and testing new possibilities for advancing earthquake forecasting. One such example is the Omega Engine for which we believe it is capable of short to intermediate-term earthquake forecasting. Moreover, based on the outcomes of the statistical evaluation, we build future products around this dynamic model.
All in all, the Omega Engine incorporates couple-stress changes, periodic, and geometric earthquake patterns into the modelling of the earthquake cycle.
In addition, it is built upon tectonic stress changes, fault instabilities, and tectonic waves.
We calculate the time-dependent stresses in the Earth’s crust based on past earthquakes. From the styles of faulting, that describe the movement along a fault that ruptured during an earthquake, we can calculate and project future states of the shear stress. Further, we use stresses in the Earth’s Crust to define the areas where the largest earthquakes are more likely to occur.
Observations of the geometric earthquake sequences point to the existence of tectonic waves, which are, in our view, the main mechanism of earthquake triggering. From their velocity and direction of propagation, we, therefore, calculate the shear traction field in the Earth’s Crust. As the waves travel, they also increase earthquake triggering probabilities on their path through unstable tectonic areas.
Within the Omega System, we separate earthquake catalogues into geometric or periodic earthquake sequences. At the same time, we define as geometric sequences those series of earthquakes where the time between consecutive earthquakes is always by some coefficient longer or shorter than the time between previous events. To add on, periodic sequences are those where the timing between events is always the same. Such sequences can be found on all spatial scales in all the catalogues. Lastly, we calculate future seismic states from them and use them as a measure of tectonic instabilities.