Quantectum is at the forefront of research in numerical earthquake forecasting.
We use the scientific advances made in areas such as data assimilation, global tectonic stress, ensemble modeling, and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) to improve our forecasts.
We work collaboratively with scientists across the world on all aspects of forecasting systems as well as the many areas that support forecast production.
To make forecasts we need to know the past and the current state of the system, and need to understand the processes that govern the system changes. The Quantectum earthquake forecasts use the data assimilation module to estimate the initial conditions of the Earth’s lithosphere for deriving the forecast models from the available seismological observations. The better the starting conditions are described, the better are the forecasts. This is the so-called initial value problem. The data assimilation module aims to provide forecasting models with the best starting values.
Quantectum data assimilation module collects the following information from the publicly available data: active tectonic faults data, volcanic eruptions, past and current earthquakes.
World's tectonic stress
Quantectum provides T-TECTO Studio X5 (freeware for structural geologists), which is the world’s most advanced software for stress-strain analysis of fault-slip data. The T-TECTO Studio X5 computer program enables classical and micropolar (Cosserat) analysis of heterogeneous and homogeneous fault-slip data using several different numerical methods.
Quantectum also performs advanced studies of the global tectonic stress fields of the Earth. We developed new numerical algorithms to calculate tectonic strain-rate and tectonic stress from the earthquake focal mechanisms. We also developed algorithms that allow us to generate charts of the relative vertical deformation, maximum horizontal compression, and fields of the normalized tectonic shear stress.
Quantectum develops several models to forecast/predict earthquakes. These models take into account different sets of cellular-automaton rules that govern the time-development of the earthquake sequences and propagation of tectonic waves across the globe. For each model we can produce numerous forecasts, all activated from the same starting time, but with slightly different starting conditions and by using slightly different physical parameters.
We perform research on the global, regional, and local forecasts/predictions, seismic reanalyses, and specific datasets. The Quantectum operational forecasts aim to show how the seismic states related to the propagation of the tectonic waves are most likely to evolve. To do this, Quantectum produces ensembles of forecasts/predictions for each model. Individually they are full descriptions of the evolution of the seismic systems. Collectively, they indicate the likelihood of a range of future earthquake scenarios.
Quantectum develops completely new approaches to the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA). The postulates of how to measure earthquake probabilities based on the ensemble approach aim to answer the following questions:
- What is the probability of an earthquake having a magnitude equal to M or larger than M in a specific tectonic zone?
- What is the probability that nothing happens (the seismic system remains stable)?
- What is the probability that an earthquake has a magnitude between M1 and M2?
Earthquakes are triggered by unidirectional and bidirectional coupling between the locally unstable tectonic zones and the global shear traction field, which is an effect of the couple stresses in the Earth’s crust. Our results show that earthquakes can be forecasted with high probabilities.