Systems

Quantectum Earthquake Forecasting System

The system is composed of computer networks which are connected and programmed to perform the following modules:

  • Data assimilation module,
  • Stress forecasting module,
  • Time-synchronization forecasting module,
  • Ensemble earthquake forecasting module,
  • Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis module,
  • On-line informational service module.

Read more on the following link: How Quantectum forecasts earthquakes?

Data assimilation module

This module performs the pre-processing data analysis of the existing seismic catalogs, but is not limited to only those, mentioned below. It also refers to any other referential catalog of seismic activities that could/will be developed and consequentially used in the future. In most analyses, the module uses the following catalogs; Euro-Mediterranean Seismic Catalog (EMSC, available on https://www.emsc-csem.org/#2), seismic catalog of the United States Geological Survey (USGS, available on https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/), and the Global Centroid-Moment-Tensor catalog (CMT, available on https://www.globalcmt.org/). The module downloads the publicly available data on the past earthquakes worldwide, where the following information is needed for each earthquake: time, hypocenter, magnitude, focal-mechanism solution. The module then imports the data into the main storage unit, where the data can be used for further analysis.

Stress forecasting module

This module uses the CMT seismic catalog and calculates numerous models (ensembles) of the global tectonic stress fields. The main products of this module are charts of the relative vertical deformation, normalized tectonic shear stress, maximum horizontal compression, and minimum horizontal compression.

Stress forecasting module: relative vertical deformation

Stress forecasting module: normalized shear stress and maximum horizontal compression

Time-synchronization forecasting module

This module performs analysis of the time-series of earthquakes within the seismic catalogs and extracts the time-synchronized Omega-sequences in these catalogs. The module then creates catalogs of the time-synchronized Omega-sequences and calculates the ensembles of the past, present and future T-synchronizations at the local, regional, and global scales. These ensembles can be used for immediate, short-range, medium-range, and long-range forecasts and predictions.

Time-synchronization forecasting module: T-synchronizations of the multi-ensemble

Ensemble earthquake forecasting module

This module uses the catalogs of T-synchronized Omega-sequences produced by the Time-Synchronization forecasting module, and calculates the directions and velocities of associated tectonic waves. The module then calculates the shear-traction fields produced by the tectonic waves for multiple models (ensembles). The module is used for immediate, short-range and medium-range forecasts.

Ensemble earthquake forecasting module: synchronization field (shear-traction field)

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis module

This module uses the results produced by the Stress forecasting module, the Time-synchronization forecasting module, and the Ensemble earthquake forecasting module, and performs statistical tests of the results, evaluates the successes and failures of the forecasts based on the catalogs of current earthquakes that happened during the forecasting period (window). The module produces the final technical products of the system, which, above all, comprise various charts of forecasts, and various statistical data. The module also performs probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the user-defined locations, regions, or in the global sense. The final step is the risk estimation and possible warning issues.

PSHA module: various statistical tests

On-line informational service module

This module compiles the results technical products, and articles of the Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis module, and delivers all information to the users of the system. It automatically creates reports for all earthquakes worldwide having the magnitude above the lower cutoff magnitude Mc. It also automatically generates reports and forecasts for all regions and Points of Interest (PI) defined by the user of the system worldwide. These information are then available on-line to the users of the system.

PSHA module: various statistical tests