Quantectum models and products
Quantectum uses several models to forecast earthquakes. These models take into account different sets of cellular-automaton rules that govern the time-development of the earthquake sequences and propagation of tectonic waves. For each model we can produce numerous forecasts, all activated from the same starting time, but with slightly different starting conditions and by using slightly different physical parameters.
We provide global, regional and local forecasts, seismic reanalyses, and specific datasets. The Quantectum operational forecasts aim to show how the seismic states related to the propagation of the tectonic waves are most likely to evolve. To do this, Quantectum produces ensembles of forecasts for each model. Individually they are full descriptions of the evolution of the seismic systems. Collectively, they indicate the likelihood of a range of future earthquake scenarios.
Current tectonic stress
Relative vertical deformation: These charts illustrate the type of faulting in the Earth's crust. The red color is used for predominantly reverse faulting, the green color is used for predominantly strike-slip faulting, and the blue color is used for predominantly normal faulting.
Normalized shear stress: These charts illustrate tectonic shear stress on known nodal planes, which are approximations of the fault planes. The shear stress field is normalized, therefore, its maximum value is 1. Very large earthquakes tend to occur in large normalized shear stress field, therefore, the charts of the normalized shear stress filed indicate regions with enlarged seismic risk.
Maximum horizontal compression: The charts of the maximum horizontal compression indicate the directions in the horizontal plane in which the Earth's crust is compressed most.
Minimum horizontal compression: The charts of the minimum horizontal compression indicate the directions in the horizontal plane in which the Earth's crust is compressed least.
Statistics: Various statistical tests are available to analyze the relationship between the magnitudes of earthquakes and tectonic stress field.
Earthquake forecasts are calculated once per month for a 56-days period. Each chart illustrates a 7-days (weekly) compilation of the synchronization field. The forecasting period starts on the second day in a month, for example, on 02/01/2020, 02/02/2020, etc...
One day / weekly compilation: This chart illustrates the current state of the synchronization field in the current 7-days time window.
56 days / weekly compilations: These charts represent the immediate and short-range earthquake forecasts.
Models: the following models are available: MES sum N, MES max N, MES max N mean, MES max N spread.
Potentials: Seismic potentials indicate those regions in which the synchronization field can have the largest effect.
Forecasting statistics: Various statistical tests are available to analyze the relationship between the magnitudes of earthquakes and the synchronization field. These statistical tests also verify the successes and failures of the forecasts.
Historic mode: This tool enables users to access all historical earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and active tectonic fault lines in the Quantectum database.
Example of the weekly compilation chart illustrating the state of the synchronization field in the defined time-window