Earthquake Forecasting Technology Overview
At Quantectum, our commitment to delivering comprehensive and precise earthquake forecasts is underpinned by the strategic utilization of cutting-edge technologies. These technologies form the core of our seismic forecasts and monitoring efforts, ensuring accuracy and reliability in the information we provide.
Physical and Statistical Earthquake Forecasting Models
Quantectum runs the most advanced Physical Earthquake Forecasting Models of global time-dependent tectonic stresses, local tectonic instabilities of faults and fault zones, critical regions, and tectonic tractions. Quantectum also provides Classical Statistical Earthquake Forecasts, such as the Smoothed Seismicity, Relative Intensity, and Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences Models. Moreover, we develop Semi-Statistical Models like Seismic and Dynamic Seismic Potentials based on Pattern Informatics (PI).
Appreciating the strong points and opportunities for enhancement in Physical and Statistical Earthquake Forecasting Models, Quantectum integrates both to optimize its earthquake forecasting capability.
Physical Earthquake Forecasting Models
Physical Models are less common due to their high sophistication level. These models solve the fundamental physical equations that govern the Earth's system and offer valuable insights into the relationship between physical forces in the Earth's crust and observed earthquakes. However, they exhibit high sensitivity to the initial dataset, leading to temporal and spatial errors.
Our advanced Physical Earthquake Forecasting Models help us understand how forces in the Earth's crust impact earthquakes. However, it's important to note that they can be sensitive to the initial data, occasionally resulting in timing and location inaccuracies.
Despite physical earthquake forecasting typically demonstrating variances in precision for triggered events compared to statistical earthquake forecasting models, it consistently excels in delivering unparalleled statistical relevance for critical background events such as mainshocks, especially within short-term scenarios.
Physical earthquake forecasts share a resemblance with meteorological weather forecasts, as the forecasting quality becomes more precise when the time window leading up to the earthquake event shortens.
See our Physical Earthquake Forecasts page for more details.
Statistical Earthquake Forecasting Models
Statistical Models are commonly used in the field of earthquake forecasting. They analyze historical data to forecast future seismic activity through statistical simulations and translate the physical equations into statistics.
The quality of earthquake forecasting, concerning factors such as time, location, and magnitude of triggered events (e.g., aftershocks), exceeds the capabilities of physical models across all time scales. However, it carries a lower probability of predicting background earthquake events, like mainshocks.
Examples of Statistical Earthquake Forecasting Models include Smoothed Seismicity, Relative Intensity, Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence, Pattern Informatics, and other models.
See our Statistical Earthquake Forecasts page for more details.
Global Operations Center in Ljubljana, Slovenia
Quantectum established the world’s first Operations Center for earthquake forecasting in Ljubljana, Slovenia, to produce and study global Low-Definition Models, High-Definition and Ultra-High-Definition Regional Models. Our dedicated team of experts, including highly trained physicists and seismologists, conducts real-time monitoring and in-depth analysis of global seismic activity.
The Operations Center generates weekly, monthly, and annual interpreted earthquake forecasts, along with daily timelines tailored for our valued customers, ensuring timely and relevant delivery.
Regional Earthquake Forecasting Operations Centers
Quantectum possesses the capability to collaborate with governments in establishing regional Operations Centers. These centers are designed to operate ensembles of Ultra-High-Definition (UHD) Local and Regional Models and to perform the high-precision modeling and analysis of tectonic instabilities of major tectonic faults and fault zones. These advanced earthquake forecasting models are essential to evaluate the seismic hazard in highly populated seismically active regions and around vital infrastructure, such as dams and nuclear power plants.
Regional Operations Centers are vital for evaluating seismic hazard and risk, as well as providing the Quantectum alert system.
See our Products page for more details.
Quantectum Alert System - for Governments
Quantectum runs the world’s most advanced earthquake alert system to assess time-dependent seismic hazards and risks. We use a three-level alert system:
1) The green alert is issued for areas with high levels of forecasted stresses and tractions up to a year in advance.
2) The yellow alert is issued two months before a potential earthquake based on analysis of the Ultra-High-Definition models for tectonic instabilities and critical regions. The yellow alert is issued if the highly unstable faults and critical regions are under elevated forecasted stresses and tractions.
3) The orange alert is issued for the highly unstable faults and fault zones under high stresses and tractions and the influence of highly seismically active tectonic deformation waves. The orange alerts are based on real-time global and regional seismicity observations up to 14 days before the potential earthquake event.
Quantectum High-Precision Aftershock Warning System (AWS) – for Civil Protection and Rescue Missions
Quantectum delivers the high-precision Aftershock Warning System to Civil Protection. This high-precision solution is vital for evaluating time-dependent seismic hazards, especially in the aftermath of major devastating events. With AWS, making informed decisions during rescue operations becomes paramount, safeguarding lives from the potential harm posed by powerful aftershocks.
Quantectum compiles and delivers earthquake forecasts and technical products through our online services for all users. These services automatically create reports for known earthquakes worldwide with a magnitude of 4.0 or higher. They also generate reports and forecasts for regions and points of interest defined by our Operations Center. Additionally, our Operations Center conducts detailed studies of our earthquake forecasting models and provides global weekly, monthly, and yearly forecasts for specific regions.
See our Products page for more details.
List of all publications and references where the Omega System is published and peer-reviewed:
Žalohar, J., Vrabec, M., 2007. Paleostress analysis of heterogeneous fault-slip data: the Gauss method. Journal of structural Geology 29, 1798–1810, doi:
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsg.2007.06.009
- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0191814107001290
Žalohar, J., Vrabec, M., 2008. Combined kinematic and paleostress analysis of fault-slip data: The Multiple-slip method. Journal of Structural Geology 30, 1603-1613, doi:
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsg.2008.09.004
- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S019181410800151X
Žalohar, J., Vrabec, M. 2010. Kinematics and dynamics of fault reactivation: The Cosserat approach. Journal of Structural Geology 32, 15-27, doi:
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsg.2009.06.008
- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0191814109001473
Žalohar, J., 2012. Cosserat analysis of interactions between intersecting faults; the wedge faulting. Journal of Structural Geology 37, 105–123, doi:
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsg.2012.01.023
- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0191814112000326
Žalohar, J., 2014. Explaining the physical origin of Båth’s law. Journal of Structural Geology 60, 30-45, doi:
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsg.2013.12.009
- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0191814113002307
Žalohar, J., 2018. The Omega-Theory; A New Physics of Earthquakes. Elsevier, 558 pp, ISBN: 9780128145814
Žalohar, J., Vičič, B., Potočnik, M., Soklič, N., Komac, M., Hölscher, T., Herlec, U., Dolenec, M., 2020b. Precursory stress changes before large earthquakes; on a new physical law for earthquakes. Journal of structural Geology, doi:
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsg.2020.104208.
- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191814120304284
Žalohar, J., Vičič, B., Potočnik, M., Soklič, N., Komac, M., Hölscher, T., Herlec, U., Dolenec, M., 2020a. Breather-type oscillations of the global tectonic shear stress fields. Journal of Structural Geology 140, 104185, doi:
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsg.2020.104185.
- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191814120303011
Žalohar, J., 2025. Physical Earthquake Forecasting and Prediction: T-TECTO Omega System, under review, Elsevier, ISBN: 9780443247088.