Physical Earthquake Forecasts: The Omega System
The Quantectum Omega Earthquake Forecasting System is a unique cutting-edge solution developed upon the latest advancements in the fields of physics and seismology. These innovations include the Continuum Theory of Earthquakes, Global Tectonic Stress Analysis, the Chaotic Synchronisation Theory of Earthquakes, Ensemble Modelling, and the Statistical Physics of Seismic Events.
Quantectum collaborates with esteemed scientists worldwide, engaging in comprehensive research and development initiatives related to earthquake forecasting. Simultaneously, we work closely with clients across diverse sectors requiring valuable and time-sensitive earthquake forecasts.
The Omega System's Features:
- Immediate, short-range, medium-range, and long-range earthquake forecasts;
- User-friendly interface allowing access to the system from anywhere in the world;
- Detailed datasets and reports on past and current earthquakes for (re)analysis;
- Regular notifications about past and current earthquakes and forecasts in specific areas.
Quantectum’s models are based on the most advanced generalized (Cosserat) continuum theory the Omega Theory that regulates the earthquake sequences’ time-development and the propagation of waves of faulting- and fracturing-related deformation (tectonic waves). Similar to weather forecasting, Quantectum takes advantage of ensemble forecasting methodologies. Our Operations Center is able to generate multiple earthquake forecasts for the same time duration, each beginning with slightly varied initial conditions and physical parameters. Through this approach, we create ensembles of forecasts that depict a spectrum of potential scenarios.
See our Technology Overview page for more details.
Quantectum uses a highly sophisticated and complex forecasting system composed of six main modules:
- Data Assimilation,
- Global Tectonic Stress,
- Local Tectonic Instabilities,
- Global Tectonic Tractions,
- Statistical Testing,
- Forecasting Information System (FIS).
To develop valuable earthquake forecasts, it is crucial to have a comprehensive understanding of both the historical and current states of the Earth's crust, treating it as a unified entity. Quantectum’s earthquake forecasts leverage the data assimilation module to estimate the initial conditions of the Earth’s lithosphere from available seismological observations.
We use multiple seismological data sources like the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog and the GEM active faults catalog, based on which we calculate various reference models and use them in the statistical testing / evaluation of the results provided by Quantectum’s Omega system.
Global Tectonic Stress
The Stress Forecasting Module assists in evaluating the stress within the Earth's crust. The Earth’s crust consists of several large tectonic plates, which can be described as slowly shifting puzzle pieces. As these plates move, they generate stress patterns globally. Quantectum's research indicates that significant earthquakes often occur in regions with elevated stress levels. Thus, the presence of high-shear stress areas serves as an indicator of potential occurrences of major and destructive earthquakes in those regions.
Local Tectonic Instabilities
Models based on localized tectonic instabilities are derived from the Theory of Chaotic Synchronization of Earthquakes. This theory reveals that earthquake sequences do not follow random patterns; instead, they exhibit geometric and periodic sequences. Earthquake sequences synchronize their rhythm (time-synchronization), resulting in significant instabilities along tectonic faults and fault zones. Typically, earthquakes tend to occur during such time-synchronizations.
Global Tectonic Tractions
Quantectum specializes in the development of advanced modeling of slow tectonic deformations that move through the Earth’s crust in the shape of slow tectonic waves. These waves change tectonic traction on the active tectonic faults, which can trigger earthquakes. The Physical Models of tectonic traction are based on the Ensemble Approach. This enables us to generate immediate, short-range, medium-range, and long-range forecasts.
Earthquake Statistical Testing
Quantectum utilizes a distinctive methodology for assessing the accuracy of earthquake forecasts. We adhere to the rules of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) and customize these rules to evaluate forecasts that do not rely on event rates. To accomplish this, we developed the modified log-likelihood (PI-test) and various versions of the Molchan test. These evaluative measures enable us to assess the efficacy of our forecasts and their precision.
See our Statistical Earthquake Testing Center page for more details.
Forecasting Information System (FIS)
Quantectum provides earthquake forecasts and technical products through an online system to all users. This system automatically produces reports for all recorded earthquakes worldwide with a magnitude of 4.0 and above. It also generates reports and forecasts for all regions and points of interest defined by our Operations Center. Additionally, the Quantectum Operations Center performs detailed studies of our models and delivers weekly and monthly forecasts for specific regions worldwide.