Statistical Earthquake Forecasts

Quantectum operates global and real-time statistical and physical earthquake forecasts.
While statistical forecasts are based on past earthquakes, physical forecasts are based on physical models that help us understand how earthquakes work. Combining both, Quantectum is able to provide more accurate earthquake forecasts and detailed reports.

Quantectum runs the following statistical earthquake forecasts:   

    • Smoothed Seismicity Model (SSM),

    • Relative Intensity Model (RI),

    • Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences Model (ETAS), 

    • Seismic Potential,

    • Dynamic Seismic Potential (based on Pattern Informatics).

Statistical earthquake forecasts are generally better at forecasting and predicting where earthquakes might occur based on data available in past earthquake catalogs. This is because they use statistical methods to analyze historical data. However, these models don't have the ability to foresee the future in a physical sense.

Due to the spatiotemporal inaccuracies, the statistical forecasting capabilities of physical earthquake forecasts are anticipated to be less accurate. However, these models possess the advantage of physical forecasting abilities, which means they can provide estimates of future seismicity scenarios and are valuable for real-time earthquake forecasting.

See our Physical Earthquake Forecasts page as well.

Baseline Rate Models and the Probability Calculator

Statistical earthquake forecasts such as SSM, RI, and ETAS can be used as baseline rate models, which estimate the long-range average or the current rate of earthquake events. Quantectum combines statistical and physical earthquake forecasting to provide you with precise probability estimates. Our probability system delivers the time-dependent earthquake probabilities in a chosen spatial and temporal window. 

See our Statistical Earthquake Testing Center page for more details.