Observations made on earthquake alarms issued in the regions as part of earthquake prognosis

Quantectum Statistical Earthquake Testing Center

When launching an earthquake forecasting test, an important goal is obtaining consensus among participants and the community. For this reason, Quantectum runs the Statistical Earthquake Testing Center based on the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) standards to rigorously evaluate earthquake forecasts. In this process, Quantectum seeks to answer the following two questions: 

 •  How should we conduct and evaluate physical forecasting testing?

 •  What is the inherent predictability of the earthquake fault rupture mechanism?

The primary objectives of the Quantectum Statistical Earthquake Testing Center involve establishing rigorous protocols for the assessment of earthquake forecasting and prediction trials.

To ensure our earthquake prognosis are comprehensive and reliable, we regularly subject both our physical and statistical earthquake forecasts to the following tests:
    • Classical Molchan Test,

    • Weighted-Molchan Test (reference models can be chosen based on the experiment),

    • Band-Molchan Test (average time-only Molchan test),

    • PI-Molchan Test,

    • Log-Likelihood PI Test.

The evaluation of seismic risk generally relies on short-term, medium-term, and long-term calculations of seismic event frequencies. There are various methods for creating such products, each characterized by their handling of historical seismic data, low-magnitude seismic activity, seismotectonic regionalization, as well as the application of the Omori, Båth, and Gutenberg-Richter Laws, smoothing techniques, and diverse optimization methods, among others.

Using a mixture of physical models with various statistical and hybrid models, like Smoothed Seismicity, Relative Intensity, or Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences Model is useful because it considers different earthquake prognosis hypotheses and geophysical data sets.

See our Technology Overview page for more details.

Molchan diagrams on the skills of the issued alarms are part of earthquake forecasting and earthquake prognosis

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